Cocoa prices surged to a 44-year high on Monday as global shortages boosted costs for chocolate makers and contracts for March deliveries are trading at prices not seen in a century due to a poor outlook for crops and a third straight year of global supply deficits.
The World Bank reports that cocoa beans were selling for US$3.61 per kilogram in September, a 57 % cent increase from the same month last year. Cocoa for March delivery traded 4 % above that level in late October.
Link https://www.worldbank.org/en/research/commodity-markets
Title: The World Bank, Commodity Markets
Chocolate makers are signalling that price increases are likely. Francois-Xavier Roger, Chief Financial Officer of Nestle S.A. (KitKat, Turtles, Aero) told investors earlier in October that while the company is slowing down price increases overall, one obvious exception will be chocolate.
Title 2023 Nine-Month Sales Conference Call Transcript, Nestle S.A. October 19, 2023
Statistics Canada does not track retail prices for confectionery, but it does report on prices charged by confectionery manufacturers to retailers and other customers and those prices have tracked food inflation generally since 2019 and rose 8 % for the 12 months ended August 2023.
LINK https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/type/data
CANSIM 18-10-0267-01
Title: Industrial product price index
Canadians may not necessarily cut back on their chocolate purchases despite price rises based on consumption data from past inflationary periods.
LINK https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/type/data
CANSIM 32-10-0054-01
Title: Food Available in Canada
They are, however, more likely to comparison shop on-line before deciding what and where to purchase. That may benefit club stores relative to supermarkets. A small but rapidly growing proportion of Canadians now shop for confectionery on-line (3.7 % in 2021), according to the Washington, DC-based National Confectioners Association, and that channel will benefit as chocolate prices rise.
LINK https://sweetsandsnacks.com/canada/
Title: Confectionery in Canada
These trends are important for Canadian food and beverage makers as the Sugar and confectionery product manufacturing sector employs 11,200 Canadians and chocolate confectionery accounted for 50 % of the $5.2 billion in shipments for the sector in 2022 (sugar manufacturing 28%, non-chocolate confectionery 22 %). Imports match exports for the sector, with Canada’s trade surplus in chocolate confectionery offsetting a trade deficit in non-chocolate confectionery (gum, mints, sugar candy).
LINK https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/en/type/data
CANSIM 14-10-0201-01
Employment by industry, monthly
CANSIM 16-10-0117-01
Principal statistics for manufacturing industries
CANSIM 12-10-0136-01
Canadian international merchandise trade by industry
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